A systems dynamics approach to understanding the biofuels socio-technical transition.

Abstract

Biofuels are renewable energy sources that are alternatives to petroleum fossil-fuels. Since energy is a domestic necessity and also a factor of production (enabling a variety of services such as transportation, heating, and food production), the widespread production and use of biofuels can facilitate low-carbon, resource-efficient and socially inclusive economic development. However, biofuels do not automatically deliver these development benefits. If managed incorrectly, biomass can be harvested at unsustainable rates, cause increases in emissions and environmental pollution, displace food security and livelihoods, and increase poverty. Therefore, appropriate management and governance will be needed to ensure that the biofuels transition is tailored to the local social, economic, and ecological context. Responding to this challenge dictates that new concepts and research tools be applied to represent and model complex systems. In addition, a multi-level perspective is needed to reveal the scale and levels of hierarchy in the system and understand the biofuels market uptake and diffusion. This chapter uses System Dynamics tools and a multi-level approach in order to reveal the various factors that will influence the transition to a biofuels socio-technical system, and to identify components that will regulate the behaviour of the biofuels system. Different stages of the biofuels system (biofuel feedstock production, biofuels production, and biofuels market uptake) were analysed using Causal loop diagrams in order to identify influencing variables and reveal important regulating feedback loops that determine the systems behaviour. This revealed that the transition to a sustainable biofuels future would require a spectrum of wide interrelated changes. The multidimensional shift from the current fossil based regime to a biofuels regime will require changes in technology, markets, user practices, social and cultural preference, policy and governance. Considering the established petroleum dependency of the existing energy system, the transition to a biofuels future will need a coordinated and systems approach so that biofuels contribute to a new green economy and a sustainable development pathway.